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DamonHD
Posts:6158
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:: Quote ::
Subject: M$ offers to buy Y!
February 01, 2008 12:57PM
GegaBit
Posts:3311
Senior member
Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
This is the biggest story I've heard in a long time, what do you guys think the impact will be?

We have email, search, portal, shopping, online advertising, jobs etc..

On advertising and search I'm not too sure what value this will add to the Internet, other than boosting Microsoft's market share.

This needs more thinking indeed.
February 01, 2008 02:33PM
GegaBit
Posts:3311
Senior member
Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
Listening now to MS's Steve Balmer conference call, they are mainly talking about a) Advertising then b) Search

Those 2 appear to be the main focus of the takeover bid, makes sense since this is where the money is.
February 01, 2008 02:44PM
Harold
Posts:2494
Senior member
Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
IF it happens, it would combine G's two largest (I think) rivals in those areas. Would have to have an impact.

Good or bad for publisher?

On the other hand, the potential for screwing up things in attempting to combine the two companies is considerable...
February 01, 2008 03:18PM
DamonHD
Posts:6158
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Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
Given that M$ and Y! are invisible to me as a publisher from both search and advertising standpoints, this feels like two narrow-minded US-centric failures clubbing together to become...

A somewhat larger failure?

Rgds

Damon
February 01, 2008 03:22PM
Harold
Posts:2494
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Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
Damon, yeah, there's definitely that potential, but possibly the potential to be large enough to challenge G.

Although becoming a somewhat larger failure does seem to me more likely.
February 01, 2008 05:25PM
Pengi
Posts:3345
Senior member
Member since: 2006-12-17
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
In the UK at least, neither Yahoo nor MSN are close competitors for Google. Maybe this will change.

I believe that both publishers and advertisers would benefit from some genuine competition for Google.

I would expect such benefits to take the form of improved customer/supplier service rather than a larger slice of the cake.
February 01, 2008 06:28PM
Quadrille
Posts:118
Full member
Member since: 2007-09-03
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
I reckon the math will be Google > Yahoo! + Microsoft.

BUT I think it'll make for a more competitive market, at least for a while. Which is probably good!
February 02, 2008 10:47AM
GegaBit
Posts:3311
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Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
Call me an incurable romantic but I'm more inclined towards Damon's "larger failure" theory.

Look at it this way:
Both companies (M+Y) have their bots roaming our pages and indexing the world.
Both companies already have a good number of visitors and even some of them are loyal but for other reasons than search.

Yet they both seem to miss the boat when it comes to coding a search algo that actually works, which is the only thing Google has over them (and gives it the edge too in contextual advertising, how many Y! bad targeting threads are out there?), enough to give Google double the search market share than both M&Y combined!

Come on, give me a $100M budget and I'll kick Google's behind back and forth horizontal and vertical in the search business, add another $100M marketing and offices budget and I'll take over the advertising edge too!

The more I think of it, the more I see it as the mating of 2 Mammoths trying to breed a nimble tiger.
February 02, 2008 11:32AM
Quadrille
Posts:118
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Member since: 2007-09-03
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
"which is the only thing Google has over them"

No, that's the point; what Google has over them is exactly that nimbleness, the genuine desire to innovate. We'll not argue at this point how successful they are - the point here is that they keep trying!

M$ has been dead for 15 years or more; and for ten years has tried to deaden everything around it. Yahoo has been 'mentally dead' for several years.

Google is very much alive, and still kicking.

Only one thing makes me suspect there may be a mind at work at M$ - After launching MSNsearch, relaunching as LIveSearch, M$ has visibly lost interest, much quicker than usual. Could this be that they saw a year ago that they'd win Yahoo!, and therefore further investment in LiveSearch was simply a waste of money?
February 02, 2008 06:21PM
DamonHD
Posts:6158
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Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
Q, that's seeing a glass as 25% full, a full reverse conspiracy theory if you ask me!

M$ has basically never innovated (maybe lots of little things round the edges, but their main skills seem to be legal and marketing and sales): at best they have always bought in tech that works.

So I don't think they'd have to deliberately give up with Live. All past performance suggests that they couldn't avoid it.

Apologies to the smarter techs at M$, but that's the way it is.

Rgds

Damon
February 02, 2008 07:09PM
Quadrille
Posts:118
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Member since: 2007-09-03
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
"that's seeing a glass as 25% full, a full reverse conspiracy theory if you ask me!"

You don't mean ... Group Hug grinning smiley

But a little more seriously:

"Not only do I think Microsoft is capable of building extraordinary search technology, I believe Microsoft is hell-bent on developing that technology in Redmond (Wash.) without a material acquisition, That is the Microsoft way." - (CNet, March 26, 2004)

"Sleeping giant Microsoft, meanwhile, was rumored to have made an unsuccessful stab at acquiring Google, and is now using its nearly infinite resources to improve it own search engine." - (Forbes, April 26, 2004)

It seems to me that if M$ cares enough about search (and the cash that goes with it), that it's inconceivable that they'd have just 'given up' on livesearch - even though most users had! That would suggest they were walking away from search ... which would make a bid for Yahoo! the second 180 u-turn in 12 months!

The M$ way has always been to keep throwing money at something until they win (see IE and word, to name two such victories)..

But I'm just speculating; I've always looked for the lighter side of M$ winking smiley

The secret of Microsoft's unpopularity
February 02, 2008 09:29PM
DamonHD
Posts:6158
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Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
I definitely DO NOT ever mean THAT! Nurse, nurse!
February 02, 2008 11:18PM
DamonHD
Posts:6158
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Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
M$ has often thrown money at things to no avail, such as trying to ignore the Internet and have all Microsoft users on its grand X.25 alternative as just one spectacular example.

Rgds

Damon
February 02, 2008 11:22PM
Pengi
Posts:3345
Senior member
Member since: 2006-12-17
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
Quote:
the mating of 2 Mammoths trying to breed a nimble tiger
lol
February 03, 2008 11:00AM
Harold
Posts:2494
Senior member
Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
I don't know if anyone else saw this--apparently Yahoo is talking about trying to get Google to make a counter-offer or something. They may not be very serious--it could just be an attempt to drive up the price M$ would have to pay.
February 04, 2008 10:13PM
DamonHD
Posts:6158
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Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
Eeek: two mammoths and a whale at a disco trying to get jiggy...

Maybe the mammoths will drown in the attempt?

(WARNING: this metaphor is dangerously stretched, please stand well back)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/04/2008 10:27PM by DamonHD.
February 04, 2008 10:27PM
Quadrille
Posts:118
Full member
Member since: 2007-09-03
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
Worth a look at this:

[news.yahoo.com]

But It's wishful thinking, Google may be allowed to do a 'deal' with Yahoo! - but never to buy them out. Even if the US agreed it (unlikely), the EU would certainly not in a million years.

This story will run and run ...

... And I still hope Yahoo! remain independent, or maybe that a third suitor becomes a White Knight.

Or in Damon's terms, A Great White Whale?
February 05, 2008 12:00AM
DamonHD
Posts:6158
Moderator
Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
Apparently, Y! has said: the finger smiley

[slashdot.org]

Or, to be clear: Boxing

Definitely NO group hug going on there, phew...

Rgds

Damon



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/09/2008 10:21PM by DamonHD.
February 09, 2008 10:21PM
nitewing
Posts:860
Senior Member
Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
I was under the impression that a take over, hostile or not did not require a decision of yes or no from the company being "taken over".

Their only recourse would be to have enough money and or assets to wage war against the Corporate raider.

Just mho Boxing


Ann
February 09, 2008 11:22PM
Quadrille
Posts:118
Full member
Member since: 2007-09-03
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
A hostile takeover - especially while the "R" word is about, carries much more risk (to the stalker's share price and therefore shareholders).

Doesn't mean it won't happen - but they need to be pretty confident of a fair proportion of major shareholders before they'll go ahead.

We'll see ... If Google are serious about 'protecting' Yahoo!, we may see them buy a small shareholding ... say 5%?
February 10, 2008 10:20AM
nitewing
Posts:860
Senior Member
Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
seems to me MS probably has a major stockholder in their corner in order for them to attempt going forward with this....Maybe someone not happy with Yahoo dragging their feet on this adserving beta program thingy.

I know I would want one in mine to insure a speedy transfer.
Driving you might say a driving force. spinning smiley sticking its tongue out

Or maybe MS has had a few shills out buying up stock over the last couple of years.








Ann
February 10, 2008 02:13PM
Quadrille
Posts:118
Full member
Member since: 2007-09-03
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
50% of me says they just 'assumed' Yahoo! would jump at this great opportunity. As it is, Yahoo! resisted the temptation to say "NO, AND WHEN WE SAY NO WE MEAN NO" for several days ... such intelligent restraint suggests canny advice!
February 10, 2008 02:39PM
wrench
Posts:210
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Member since: 2007-01-15
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
Y thumbs their nose at M$ today, M$ should reply back:

Wish in one hand, S&^T in the other, lets see which hand fills up first.

How will Y's stock hold up, if M$ stops the offer now, will it drop to below recent lows, then panic selling to new lows & M$ or G picks thru the scraps?

Wrench
February 11, 2008 09:23PM
Harold
Posts:2494
Senior member
Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
Yes, I agree--a dangerous game Yahoo's board is playing here.

If M$ pulls back, I think their stock will drop right away to below where it was before. They've been spinning their wheels recently. Not that M$ has done any better with their web stuff, but they've got money to throw around and Y! doesn't.
February 11, 2008 09:25PM
DamonHD
Posts:6158
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Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
Murdoch and Y!?

[www.theregister.co.uk]
February 14, 2008 01:53PM
DamonHD
Posts:6158
Moderator
Member since: 2006-11-30
:: Quote ::
Subject: Re: M$ offers to buy Y!
And your chance to cast your vote for the new name should the mammoths manage to get it on while the whale isn't watching:

[www.theregister.co.uk]

Rgds

Damon
February 14, 2008 02:28PM

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